In a dramatic development that has reshaped Nigeria’s fuel landscape, Dangote Refinery announced today that it has slashed its petrol gantry price to ₦825 per litre, a move that has ignited a fierce price war in the country’s volatile fuel market. The announcement, made early this morning by Africa’s largest refinery, has already forced the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) to reduce its own prices, bringing relief to consumers in Lagos where pump prices have dropped to around ₦860 per litre, down from a recent high of ₦998 per litre reported in October 2024. This bold pricing strategy is seen as a direct response to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s economic recovery plans, which have aimed to redirect funds into real economy investments since the controversial removal of fuel subsidies in May 2023.
Dangote Refinery, a $20 billion mega-project located in the Lekki Free Zone near Lagos, has been a game-changer since it began processing gasoline in September 2024 after overcoming initial delays caused by crude supply shortages. The refinery, one of the largest in the world, now meets Nigeria’s full fuel demand, significantly reducing the country’s dependence on costly imported petrol. By leveraging locally sourced crude paid for in naira, a policy shift that began in October 2024, Dangote has positioned itself as a key player in stabilizing fuel prices and bolstering energy security for Africa’s top oil producer. The refinery’s operations have also created thousands of jobs and stimulated economic growth, fulfilling promises of broader socio-economic impacts beyond the oil sector.
The price reduction comes at a critical time for Nigerians, who have been grappling with a severe cost-of-living crisis since the 2023 subsidy removal led to a 45% increase in pump prices. Gasoline prices have long been a sensitive issue in Nigeria, where millions of households and small businesses rely on fuel-powered generators due to the country’s unreliable electricity grid. The latest price cut has been welcomed by consumers, particularly in urban centers like Lagos and Abuja, where fuel costs have been a significant burden. “This is a big relief for us,” said Tunde Adebayo, a taxi driver in Lagos. “Fuel prices were killing my business, but now I can afford to run my cab again.”
However, the move has sparked heated debate among industry experts and analysts, who warn that Dangote’s growing dominance could lead to monopolistic control in the sector. Nigeria’s oil regulators, particularly the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), have previously accused Dangote of attempting to monopolize the energy market, citing concerns over high sulfur levels in locally refined products as recently as July 2024. The President of the African Development Bank, Akinwumi Adesina, had earlier challenged critics to build their own refineries rather than rely on imports, but fears persist that Dangote’s aggressive pricing could stifle competition. “While lower prices are a win for consumers in the short term, the long-term implications of a single player dominating the market could threaten energy security and lead to higher costs down the line,” said Ayotunde Abiodun, an analyst at SBM Intelligence.
The price war also highlights the ongoing tensions between Dangote Refinery and NNPC, which has struggled with financial strain after years of importing fuel at a loss. NNPC’s recent price hikes had drawn criticism from labor unions and manufacturers, who warned of worsening economic hardship. Now, with Dangote undercutting NNPC’s prices, the state-owned company faces increased pressure to adapt to the new market dynamics. Industry sources also point to underlying challenges, such as fluctuating global crude oil prices and logistical costs, which could make it difficult for Dangote to sustain such low prices in the long term.
Civil society groups, including ActionAid Nigeria, have called for greater transparency in fuel pricing and comprehensive economic reforms to protect vulnerable citizens. “While we welcome any relief for Nigerians, the government must ensure that this doesn’t turn into a monopoly that hurts consumers in the future,” said an ActionAid spokesperson. “We need policies that promote competition and safeguard energy security.”
As the fuel market continues to evolve, Nigerians are left wondering whether Dangote’s price slash will bring lasting benefits or pave the way for a new era of market control. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining how NNPC and other stakeholders respond to this seismic shift. Will this be a true win for the Nigerian people, or the first step toward a fuel monopoly in disguise? Stay tuned as we bring you the latest updates on this unfolding story.
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